Welcome to my Marin County real estate market report for October 2018, with the latest information and charts on the home buying and selling scene here in Marin. The big story this month is the increase in the number of homes for sale versus the same time last year. We saw overall home inventories increase by about 25% in September 2018 versus September 2017, while the median sold price was up close to 15% versus the same time last year.

Agents and buyers may be asking where this inventory was back in the big spring market. If you have been reading my monthly real estate report, you know this is actually the first time all year we are seeing an increase in the number of homes for sale versus prior year. Evidence is anecdotal at best — but as you may recall we began the year with a lot of stock market volatility, which may have scared some sellers. Other sellers found it difficult to conduct pre-sale repairs and renovations due to scarcity of labor caused by a hot job market combined with the impact of the construction work after last year’s Sonoma / Napa fires.

My contacts on the east coast as well as in the hot Seattle / Portland markets, and Los Angeles markets are all telling me they are seeing a slowdown versus last year. The economy is booming so it is unclear what is driving this. There is some concern that rising mortgage rates and reduced income tax deductions could be having an impact on home affordability, and we are seeing more people priced out of the entry home market despite the economy’s strength.

Mortgage Rates Expected to Increase

We are seeing mortgage rates gradually move upwards, and indications are we will continue to see that trend into next year. Recently Max Gustafson presented this chart to Marin real estate agents illustrating where Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors expects rates to land by the middle of next year:

As rates approach 5% it is expected we will see an impact on buyer sentiment — stay tuned.

I’m Never Too Busy For You

Please keep an eye on My Featured Listings page or call me for details on homes coming soon or being held as pocket listings. Whether you are a buyer, a seller, or just want to learn more about the market for a potential future move, I am always happy to talk about the Marin real estate market.

These market reports are a great place to start — but let’s continue the conversation. Call me at 415-847-5584 and I can provide you with a personalized market overview tailored to your specific situation. To those who read this report, thank you for all your support of my business. I couldn’t do it without you.