Marin County Real Estate Market Report
October 2023

Marin Real Estate Market Report

October 2023

The Marin County real estate market held flat in September, with the median price remaining at $1.475mm compared to the same month last year. Inventory continued to be a challenge with the number of homes available for sale down 9%. For the quarter ending in September, the SF Bay Area overall saw a drop in sales activity, with Marin and San Francisco leading the drop at 23%. This is to be expected given the much lower inventories in the same period.

Though sales fell throughout all price tiers, the largest drops were at the upper ranges. Sales of homes priced between $2.5 million and $3.5 million dropped by 13%, while sales greater than $3.5 million fell by 20% from the second quarter. Once again, Marin and San Francisco counties led the way with the largest drop in sales within the highest-priced tiers.

Having said that, last week I launched 40 Rodeo Avenue in Sausalito and it is not pending  considerably  over the asking price after receiving multiple offers. Mid-century modern homes are still in very short supply and face high demand, and this one had that special “x” factor of emotional appeal. Truly a special home.

My listing at 1273 Cambridge Avenue in Novato also went into escrow. While the market may be slower, homes that are priced and marketed properly are still selling, and some sell for over the asking price.

As I said last month, all is not doom and gloom, and in fact the market is moving towards a much more balanced scenario after years of being a seller’s market. Sellers may need to be a bit more realistic on pricing (price for today’s market, not last year’s market) and buyers may be able to extract pricing and/or term concessions when purchasing a home.

Check Out My Beautiful Listings

swimming pool in backyard and rear of home

I just launched 23 Maplewood Drive in San Rafael’s Glenwood neighborhood. It is a newly-remodeled 4 BR+office / 3 BA home with a gorgeous swimming pool in a flat, fenced backyard that opens up to the park behind the house.. Truly a special home, it is offered for $1,995,000.

I just announced a pricing improvement at  115 Oak Drive in San Rafael in partnership with Global Estates. This is an amazing 3 BR/2BA home plus a separate guest cottage located in a hidden coastal enclave and is now offered for $1,795,000, a phenomenal value for this beautiful home.

How Can I Help?

While the market is shifting, there are many opportunities out there for smart buyers and sellers. Let me help pave the road to success for you!

These market reports are a great place to start, but let’s continue the conversation. I am always happy to discuss the market and the best way to approach buying or selling a home in Marin County or the greater Bay Area. Call or text me anytime at 415-847-5584.

Check Out My Sizzle Reel!

From the Golden Gate Sotheby’s Bay Area Market Report…

HOMEBUYERS ADJUST TO NEW NORMAL

The regional economy and housing market continued to forge ahead despite headwinds. While the further rise in mortgage rates constrains affordability for some buyers, signs continue to emerge that potential buyers are adjusting to the new normal of higher rates. The SF Bay Area economy continued to gain strength, with the unemployment rate still in the mid-3% range. A normalization of international migration to the region has added to housing demand. Though the SF Bay Area housing market is resilient, tragic geopolitical events may trigger new worries for housing demand should ripple effects such as volatile equity markets and higher inflation take hold.

BUYER ACTIVITY CONSTRAINED

Following the summer rebound, sales across the SF Bay Area continued to slow, totaling approximately 9,600 homes sold during the third quarter. This was a roughly 10% decline from the second quarter and down 18% from one year ago. The increase in mortgage rates combined with tighter underwriting and appraisals constrained some buyer activity. Compared with last quarter, only Santa Cruz County produced more sales, increasing by 4%. The largest drops in sales activity were in Marin and San Francisco counties, where sales during the third quarter fell by roughly 23%.

HIGHEST PRICE TIERS SEE LARGEST DECLINES

Though sales fell throughout all price tiers, the largest drops were at the upper ranges. Sales of homes priced between $2.5 million and $3.5 million dropped by 13%, while sales greater than $3.5 million fell by 20% from the second quarter. Once again, Marin and San Francisco counties led the way with the largest drop in sales within the highest-priced tiers. On the positive front, sales within the $1 million to $2 million range were flat to slightly higher in Alameda, San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties.

CONTINUED BUYER COMPETITION BOLSTERS PRICES

Though some parts of the housing market are slowing, a majority of homes still sold above the list price, highlighting the persistence of competition in the region. During the third quarter, 59% of homes in the SF Bay Area sold above the list price, compared with 60% in the second quarter. Among homes sold above the list price, the average premium was nearly 10%. Buyer competition was concentrated in the inner SF Bay Area, where the largest shares of homes sold above the list price were generated during the third quarter. The continued focus on homes closer to employment clusters highlights the reality of increasing SF Bay Area commute congestion and more workers heading to the office for at least some portion of the week.
Bay area median home prices chart

LOOKING AHEAD

The low levels of inventory will continue to limit sales activity while providing some support to home values. With few homes available, buyers will continue to hone in on prime neighborhoods and a significant share of homes may sell above the list price. Higher mortgage rates will continue to constrain potential trade-up buyers for the foreseeable future. While employment growth and income gains should continue to support housing demand throughout the region, the potential for slower market conditions through the end of the year remains.

Please click here to read the full report.

What My Clients Are Saying…

Just Listed

23 Maplewood Drive | San Rafael

23 Maplewood Drive in San Rafael, California

Beautifully Remodeled Glenwood Home with Sparkling Swimming Pool and Fenced Backyard

Exclusively Offered for $1,995,000

115 Oak Drive | San Rafael

115 Oak Drive San Rafael California back garden and guest house

Sophisticated Gem Located in Hidden Coastal Enclave

JUST REDUCED to $1,795,000

Pending Sale

40 Rodeo Avenue | Sausalito

40 Rodeo Avenue Sausalito entrance at twilight

Enchanting Mid-Century Modern Retreat with Breathtaking Panoramic Views

Multiple Offers – Selling Price To Be Announced After Close

1273 Cambridge Street | Novato

1273 Cambridge Street Novato front exterior of home

Single-Level Charmer With Beautifully Remodeled Kitchen and Baths

Selling Price To Be Announced After Close

Marin Real Estate Market Stats

Marin County home sales by town chart q3-2023
Marin County real estate market trends chart q3-2023

Marin County Real Estate Market Report Charts

(click any slide to enlarge & launch slideshow)

“For Sale” vs. Sold Home Prices vs. Median Home Prices

Marin County real estate market report October 2023 home prices chart

Marin Home Prices List Price vs. Sold

Marin County real estate market report October 2023 days on market chart

Marin County Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales

Marin County real estate market report October 2023 months of inventory chart

Average Price Per Square Foot

Marin County real estate market report October 2023 home prices per square foot chart

Marin County Number of Homes on the Market

Marin County real estate market report October 2023 number of homes for sale chart

I hope you have found my Marin County Real Estate Market Report informative. Please feel free to add your comments, questions or suggestions in the comments section below. If I may be of any assistance in helping you attain your real estate goals, please call or text me at 415-847-5584 and I will be in touch right away.

Would you like to see this data for your town only?

I am also excited to announce that my website now has new real estate market reports by town with more coming soon. Please check these out:

Belvedere Real Estate Market Report

Corte Madera Real Estate Market Report

Fairfax Real Estate Market Report

Kentfield Real Estate Market Report

Larkspur Real Estate Market Report

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report

Novato Real Estate Market Report

San Anselmo Real Estate Market Report

San Rafael Real Estate Market Report

Tiburon Real Estate Market Report

These are all accessible from the “Market Reports” menu item here on my website at any time.

Marin County Realtor Thomas Henthorne headshot

About the Author

Thomas Henthorne is consistently top-ranked, award-winning real estate agent in Marin, helping people buy and sell homes for almost a decade. He writes the #1 real estate blog in Marin County and is a frequent speaker on panels at industry gatherings.

He may be reached at 415-847-5584.

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