Marin County Real Estate Market Report
November 2024

November 2024 Marin real estate market report

November 2024 Marin County Real Estate Market Report

In October 2024, Marin County’s real estate market showcased resilience amidst broader economic changes, with significant growth in median home prices and inventory. However, rising mortgage rates are beginning to shape buyer behavior and market dynamics. Let’s dive into the key trends and what they mean for buyers and sellers alike.

Key Market Trends

  • Median Home Price Growth: The median sold price for homes in Marin County climbed 13% year-over-year to $1.8 million, reflecting continued strong demand for the area’s exclusive properties.
  • Rising Inventory: There were 484 homes for sale, up 17% compared to October 2023, providing buyers with more choices and fostering a more balanced market.
  • Extended Selling Times: Average days on market increased 31% to 46 days, indicating a slower pace of transactions as the holiday season approaches.
  • Slightly Higher Supply: Months of supply rose 5% to 2.1 months, still signaling a seller’s market but with increasing equilibrium.

Mortgage rates in 2024 by month showing dip in September

Interest Rates and Market Impact

After a dip to 5.89% in mid-September, mortgage rates surged back to 6.77% by late October, the highest level since mid-July. Jumbo 30-year loans saw a similar rise, averaging 6.8%. This increase represents nearly a full percentage point jump in just over a month, adding new affordability challenges for buyers. Despite these increases, September and October remained active for Marin real estate, with many buyers locking in deals before rates climbed​

Looking forward, the higher borrowing costs may temper buyer enthusiasm heading into winter, though Marin’s desirableness and limited inventory will likely sustain demand for well-positioned properties.

Seasonal and Economic Outlook

The seasonal slowdown heading into the holidays is typical, but this year, market conditions are compounded by broader economic uncertainties. The recent volatility in the stock and bond markets and the incoming new Presidential administration have added layers of unpredictability. Buyers and sellers alike are watching closely to see how these factors influence the housing market into 2025.

For Buyers: The rise in inventory offers a unique opportunity to explore more choices in Marin County. However, with rates higher, it’s critical to be financially prepared and to act decisively when the right property appears.

For Sellers: Despite rising inventory, Marin remains a seller’s market, with homes selling for strong prices. Properly positioning your home for the current market dynamics will be essential to achieving the best results.

Marin County continues to offer a unique combination of luxury, lifestyle, and opportunity. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply stay informed, the expertise of a seasoned real estate professional is invaluable in navigating these market conditions.

Now Available!

203 H Street in San Rafael is available. This is a beautifully remodeled 4 bed/3 bath vintage victorian located in the heart of the coveted Forbes neighborhood. 

378 Margarita Drive in San Rafael is available off market for $2,595,000. This is a beautiful gated home on two acres offering incredible privacy and amazing 270 degree views.

Just Sold

I am pleased to announce that several of my listings sold in September and closed in October. 40 Alta Vista Avenue, a gorgeous legacy property in the Winship Neighborhood of San Anselmo, closed for $5,250,000.  

I also sold 21 Edgewood Way in San Rafael in one week for $2,300,000 which was $105,000 over the asking price.

I was also privileged to represent clients on the buy side who successfully closed on 80 Chamberlain Drive in Novato.

How Can I Help?

While the market is shifting, there are many opportunities out there for smart buyers and sellers. Let me help pave the road to success for you!

It is never too early to discuss how to best prepare your home for the busy spring selling season.

These market reports are a great place to start, but let’s continue the conversation. I am always happy to discuss the market and the best way to approach buying or selling a home in Marin County or the greater Bay Area. 

If you have any questions about the market or are considering your next real estate move, please don’t hesitate to reach out. Together, let’s make your real estate goals a reality. Call or text me anytime at 415-847-5584.

Check Out My Sizzle Reel!

From the Golden Gate Sotheby’s Bay Area Market Report…

A ROBUST MONTH

In October, an increase in mortgage rates and a heat wave that broiled the SF Bay Area did not derail the housing market. The improvement in sales this month proved particularly robust, bolstered by strong activity in the higher-priced segment. The local economy also added 27,500 jobs since last year, an increase of 0.7%. Hiring in San Francisco and the East Bay accounted for most of these job gains. The regional unemployment rate remained tight at 4.3%. Return to office mandates continued to evolve, with more large tech firms requiring workers to return to the office the majority of the week. As more firms adopt these policies, and traffic congestion continues to worsen, a growing number of potential buyers may prioritize proximity to the workplace, leading to accelerating activity in the inner SF Bay Area.

DEMAND GOBBLES UP SUPPLY

The surge in sales activity resulted in a downtick in for-sale inventory, with roughly 6,400 homes on the market in October. However, buyers still had more options than at the same time last year in most neighborhoods. Although higher than a year ago, available inventory remained lower than the historical average as the majority of existing homeowners has in-place mortgage rates lower than the current environment which constrains trade-up activity. The number of homes available for sale was only 6% less than in 2019, while months of inventory was almost the same as the October 2019 level. These trends highlight that inventory is trending towards a more sustainable level, but also strong demand is keeping supply in check.

STRONG INCREASE IN SALES ACTIVITY

More than 3,900 homes sold in October across the SF Bay Area. While seasonal trends typically mean sales increase in October, closings increased by more than 20% from last month and 17% from last year. Both of these growth rates were the largest increases since 2020. Home sales increased in all SF Bay Area counties from 2023 except Napa County, where sales declined by nearly 12%. Buyers were particularly active in neighborhoods closer to job centers, such as the inner bay side of Alameda County and neighborhoods near or with easier access to downtown San Francisco. Sales activity in both counties increased by approximately 24% in October. This shift to the inner SF Bay Area combined with higher mortgage rates resulted in a smaller sales bump in inland Contra Costa and Solano counties, where price-constrained households account for a greater share of the potential buyer pool.

MORTGAGE RATES NOT DETERRING SF BAY AREA BUYERS

Elsewhere in the SF Bay Area, buyers may have been less affected by the run-up in mortgage rates. The number of homes sold for $1.25 million or less increased by 11% year-over-year, which was the largest increase in more than three years. A growing majority of buyers understand the ability to refinance should rates move lower and prices remain strong, a different outlook than in some cities across the country. Outshining the strength in the lower price segment, nearly 300 homes sold for $3.5 million or more in October, an increase of 63% compared with last year. Sales in this price range nearly doubled in Santa Clara County, a sign that sentiment of buyers in the tech industry is not entirely impacted by recent layoffs in the sector. More than 1,400 homes sold for between $1.25 and $3.5 million, an increase of 18% year-over-year.

HIGH DEMAND FOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS IMPACTS PRICES

The share of sales over the asking price was little changed since September, with a slight majority of buyers paying more than the list price. However, inner SF Bay Area counties and top neighborhoods outperformed the broader region. Nearly three-quarters of homes in San Francisco sold for more than the list price, while this share was more than two-thirds in Alameda and Santa Clara counties. These are clear indicators that buyers are competing for quality listings in neighborhoods with access to the workplace and urban amenities. In another sign of robust demand in San Francisco, homes sold in less than three weeks on average, the shortest time on market in more than two years. On the other end of the spectrum, more homes sold for less than the list price in Sonoma and Marin counties with an average discount of less than 10%.

LOOKING AHEAD

The strong October results bode well for the SF Bay Area housing market as it moves into the winter season, and again highlights the strength of the housing market.

Please click here to read the full report.

What My Clients Are Saying…

Now Available!

203 H Street
Now Available
203 H Street San Rafael front garden hero
203 H Street | San Rafael
Beautifully Remodeled Vintage Victorian Home in the Coveted Forbes Neighborhood
Exclusively Offered for $2,598,000

Swipe to See More Homes

378 Margarita Drive
Available Off Market
378 Margarita Drive in San Rafael view of Mt. Tamalpais at sunset
378 Margarita Drive | San Rafael
Spectacular Country Club Gated Estate Offering Complete Privacy and Stunning Panoramic Views
Offered Exclusively for $2,595,000

Swipe to See More Homes

40 Alta vista
Sold by Thomas
40 Alta Vista San Anselmo
40 Alta Vista Avenue | San Anselmo
A Chance to Own One of Winship Park’s Legacy Properties on 1+ Acres with Mt. Tam Views
Sold by Thomas for $5,250,000

Swipe to See More Homes

21 Edgewood Way
Sold in One Week for $105,000 Over Asking
21 Edgewood Way San Rafael CA front exterior at twilight
21 Edgewood Way | San Rafael
Beautiful Contemporary Home Offering Panoramic Views in Coveted Fairhills
Sold for $2,300,000 in One Week

Swipe to See More Homes

23 maplewood drive
Sold for $55,000 Over Asking
40 Rodeo Avenue Sausalito living room
23 Maplewood Drive | San Rafael
EBeautifully Remodeled Glenwood Home with Sparkling Swimming Pool and Fenced Backyard with Direct Access to Victor Jones Park
Sold for $2,050,000

Swipe to See More Homes

40 rodeo ave
Sold for $255,000 Over Asking
40 Rodeo Avenue Sausalito living room
40 Rodeo Avenue | Sausalito
Enchanting Mid-Century Modern Retreat with Breathtaking Panoramic Views
Sold in One Week for $1,795,000

Swipe to See More Homes

5 Norwood Ave
Sold in One Day for $505k Over Asking!
5 Norwood Avenue Ross California
5 Norwood Avenue | Ross
Bespoke Spanish Mediterranean Home in the Coveted Flats of Ross
with Walk-to-Everything Convenience
Sold in One Day for $505,000 Over Asking at $4,200,000

Swipe to See More Homes

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Marin Real Estate Market Stats

Marin county home sales by town chart Q32024
Marin county real estate markt trends chart Q32024

Marin County Real Estate Market Report Charts

(click any slide to enlarge & launch slideshow)

“For Sale” vs. Sold Home Prices vs. Median Home Prices

Marin County real estate market report November 2024 median home price chart

Marin Home Prices List Price vs. Sold

Marin County real estate market report November 2024 days on market chart

Marin County Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales

Marin County real estate market report November 2024 months of inventory chart

Average Price Per Square Foot

Marin County real estate market report November 2024 home price per square foot chart

Marin County Number of Homes on the Market

Marin County real estate market report November 2024 number of homes for sale chart

I hope you have found my Marin County Real Estate Market Report informative. Please feel free to add your comments, questions or suggestions in the comments section below. If I may be of any assistance in helping you attain your real estate goals, please call or text me at 415-847-5584 and I will be in touch right away.

Would you like to see this data for your town only?

I am also excited to announce that my website now has new real estate market reports by town with more coming soon. Please check these out:

Belvedere Real Estate Market Report

Corte Madera Real Estate Market Report

Fairfax Real Estate Market Report

Kentfield Real Estate Market Report

Larkspur Real Estate Market Report

Mill Valley Real Estate Market Report

Novato Real Estate Market Report

San Anselmo Real Estate Market Report

San Rafael Real Estate Market Report

Tiburon Real Estate Market Report

These are all accessible from the “Market Reports” menu item here on my website at any time.

Marin County Realtor Thomas Henthorne headshot

About the Author

Thomas Henthorne is consistently top-ranked, award-winning real estate agent in Marin, helping people buy and sell homes for almost a decade. He writes the #1 real estate blog in Marin County and is a frequent speaker on panels at industry gatherings.

He may be reached at 415-847-5584.

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